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How will North Korea react to the political crisis in South Korea?

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A North Korean woman in her 30s helps a North Korean man in his 30 sign a document
Kim Yo Jong and her brother Kim Jong Un have yet to comment on the South Korean political crisis. (Reuters: Korea Summit Press Pool)

In the past 24 hours, it seems all eyes have been on Seoul.

A late-night declaration of martial law, which was rescinded only hours later, briefly plunged South Korea’s hard-won democracy into chaos.

The story dominated global headlines and world leaders have weighed in on the political drama, expressing both concern and relief.

But the country’s secretive northern neighbour has so far remained conspicuously silent.

North Korea is still technically at war with the South, more than 70 years after the end of the Korean War.The scandals that triggered Yoon’s downfall

Yoon Suk Yeol and his wife Kim Keon Hee stand with a line of guards at a wreath laying ceremony.

Photo shows Yoon Suk Yeol and his wife Kim Keon Hee stand with a line of guards at a wreath laying ceremony.

South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol opted for the nuclear option when he declared martial law. But it followed months of scandals, low approval ratings and a stand-off with a hostile parliament.

President Yoon Suk Yeol evoked the spectre of Pyongyang in a bid to justify his extraordinary military move.

“To safeguard a liberal South Korea from the threats posed by North Korea’s communist forces and to eliminate anti-state elements … I hereby declare emergency martial law,” he said in his address.

Some observers note this kind of rhetoric has been used by Korean dictators of the past, while others say this latest political episode will only bolster Pyongyang.

A crowd is seen in front as colourful fireworks explode in the sky.
One expert said North Korea would celebrate political furore in the South, possibly with fireworks. (AP: Jon Chol Jin)

South Korea’s military has said so far there have been no “unusual” movements from Pyongyang, amid concerns the hermit state could capitalise on the political crisis.

So why hasn’t North Korea responded yet? When can we expect a reaction from leader Kim Jong Un, and what action might he take?

What’s making news in North Korea?

So far, there appears to be no mention of South Korea’s political turmoil on state-controlled media outlet Korea Central News Agency (KCNA).

North Korean press covered colourful events, like a dance performance to mark the International Day of Persons with Disabilities, but made no mention of South Korea’s political turmoil.   (AFP: Kim Won Jin)

Instead, the North Korean press has prioritised stories about Kim Jong Un sending a “birthday spread” to a patriotic fighter on his 90th birthday, and sending a floral basket to the Lao president.

Other stories are about the building of a new dairy farm, officials touring a tractor factory and a study tour to “revolutionary battle sites” at Mount Paektu.

That’s not to say KCNA hasn’t covered international affairs — the outlet has published stories about a treaty between Pyongyang and Moscow coming into force, as well as the foreign ministry spokesperson’s remarks on “anti-Syria terrorism”.

So why nothing on South Korea?

Experts offer a few reasons.

Journalist and North Korea expert Jean Lee noted that ordinary North Koreans probably have no idea about the political machinations going on south of the border.

“Most North Koreans do not have access to the internet and do not have permission to even phone people outside the country, so they likely do not know what is happening in South Korea,” she said.

“But I expect North Korean state media will make the most of this political upheaval eventually as part of a campaign to portray South Korean politics and society as disorganised and chaotic.”

Fire extinguishers were sprayed at soldiers to block them from entering the main hall of the National Assembly in Seoul. (Yonhap: Jo Da-un via AP)

Leonid Petrov, Korea expert and dean of the International College of Management at Sydney University, said the cogs of the propaganda machinery grind slowly in a country where an independent press does not exist and media is entirely under the control of the state.

“Information trickles into the country very slowly, so they need some time to absorb, process, formulate their position, find the vocabulary for this — so it takes time,” he said.

He said he expected information would be broadcast to the domestic public in a couple of days, explaining what happened in the South “in the usual vitriolic and pejorative terms”.

The fracas could provide ample fodder for propaganda leaflets sent in balloons from North Korea. (Reuters: Yonhap)

Some pointed out that North Korea was preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, where Pyongyang sent thousands of soldiers to join Russia’s forces.

“I can’t see a situation in which North Korea would try to take any military advantage of the political instability in South Korea,” said Alexander Hynd, an expert on Korean politics and research fellow at UNSW’s School of Social Sciences.

He added that this silence had precedence, for example, when former South Korean president Park Geun-hye was being impeached in 2016-17.

“North Korea was pretty quiet and let things play out without getting involved,” he said.

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