What it means for Iran’s position and the prospect of peace in Gaza

For most of the people of Lebanon, a ceasefire could not come quickly enough. A leading Lebanese analyst at a conference on the Middle East that I’m attending in Rome said she couldn’t sleep as the appointed hour for the ceasefire came closer.

“It was like the night before Christmas when you’re a kid. I couldn’t wait for it to happen.”

You can see why there’s relief. More than 3,500 citizens of Lebanon have been killed in Israeli strikes. Displaced people packed their cars before dawn to try to get back to whatever remains of their homes.

Well over one million of them have been forced to flee by Israeli military action. Thousands have been wounded and the homes of tens of thousands of others have been destroyed.

But in Israel, some feel they have lost the chance to do more damage to Hezbollah.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met the heads of Israel’s northern municipalities, which have been turned into ghost towns with around 60,000 civilians evacuated further south.

Israel’s Ynet news website reported that it was an angry meeting that turned into a shouting match, with some of the local officials frustrated that Israel was taking the pressure off their enemies in Lebanon and not offering an immediate plan to get civilians home.

In a newspaper column, the mayor of Kiryat Shmona, close to the border, said he doubted the ceasefire would be enforced, demanding that Israel creates a buffer zone in South Lebanon. In a poll commissioned by the Israeli station Channel 12 News those questioned were roughly split between supporters and opponents of the ceasefire.

Half of the participants in the survey believe Hezbollah has not been defeated and 30% think the ceasefire will collapse.

Back in late September, at the UN General Assembly in New York, a deal looked as if it was close. Diplomats from the US and UK were convinced that a ceasefire very similar to the one that is now coming into force was about to happen.

All sides in the war appeared to have signalled their willingness to accept a ceasefire based on the provisions of Security Council resolution 1701, which was passed to end the 2006 Lebanon war: Hezbollah would pull back from the border to be replaced by UN peacekeepers and the Lebanese Armed Forces. As they moved in, Israeli forces would gradually move out.

But Prime Minister Netanyahu went to the podium at the UN to deliver a fiery speech that refused to accept any pause in Israel’s offensive.

Back at his New York hotel Netanyahu’s official photographer captured the moment as he ordered the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, along with most of his high command. Netanyahu’s office released the photos, in another calculated snub for American diplomacy.

The assassination was a significant escalation and a blow to Hezbollah. In the weeks since, Israel’s military has inflicted immense damage to Hezbollah’s military organisation. It could still fire rockets over the border and its fighters continued to engage Israel’s invasion force. But Hezbollah is no longer the same threat to Israel.

By: Jeremy Bowen

Source: BBC