Global rating agency S&P has projected that Ghana’s public debt, including COCOBOD obligations, will remain above 60% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in gross terms through 2027. The agency noted that the country’s debt levels will continue to be influenced by factors such as economic growth, fiscal policies, and balance-of-payments outcomes, particularly beyond the conclusion of Ghana’s International Monetary Fund (IMF) program in June 2026.

S&P estimated that, after Ghana’s debt exchange program, foreign currency debt constitutes approximately 66% of the total government debt, assuming a 99% participation rate in the Eurobond exchange and 91% of bondholders opting for discount notes.

The agency cautioned that Ghana’s local currency ratings could face a negative outlook if fiscal and external conditions deteriorate further. However, S&P highlighted that a successful restructuring of the remaining commercial debt could lead to an improved foreign currency rating. The agency noted that its assessment will consider Ghana’s post-restructuring credit profile, including the revised terms of its external debt.

Additionally, S&P indicated it could upgrade Ghana’s local currency ratings if the country demonstrates progress in stabilizing public finances and building foreign currency reserves.

Following Ghana’s distressed debt exchange on its Eurobonds, S&P assigned a ‘CCC+’ foreign currency issue rating to the country’s five categories of new notes. The debt exchange, which gained approval from the majority of Ghana’s Eurobond holders, involved the restructuring of $13.1 billion in Eurobonds and arrears. This effort aims to alleviate external debt-service pressures and enhance public debt sustainability, as part of Ghana’s ongoing Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement with the IMF.

Source: TheDotNews